If Lease-Up Has to Go Perfectly, the Deal Is Already Tight

A development deal often looks strongest at stabilization.

Full occupancy. Clean rent roll. Target returns.

But getting there is where the risk sits.

Lease-up rarely follows a straight line.
It takes longer than expected.
Tenants don’t arrive evenly.
Concessions show up where they weren’t planned.

When a deal only works under a smooth lease-up scenario, there’s very little margin for error.

That doesn’t mean the deal is wrong.

It means it’s dependent on execution going exactly as planned.

The more a deal relies on a clean path to stabilization, the more discipline it requires on the front end.

Because once the process starts, there’s less room to adjust.