Where Deals Start to Feel Off
Most deals don’t look wrong at the start.
They usually feel right.
The numbers work.
The assumptions seem reasonable.
Everything lines up on paper.
But every now and then, something feels slightly off.
It’s not obvious.
It might be:
a rent number that feels just a little stretched
a timeline that looks a little too clean
a set of assumptions all leaning in the same direction
Individually, none of it stands out.
Together, it does.
That’s usually where I spend the most time.
Because deals rarely break because of one big mistake.
They break when several small ones start reinforcing each other.
Each assumption depends on the next.
Each one makes the others feel more reasonable.
Until the whole structure rests on something that isn’t quite supported.
That’s the risk.
Not that something is clearly wrong—
but that nothing has been tested independently.
When everything points the same way, it’s worth asking why.
If your assumptions only work together, they probably don’t work at all.
